Democratic presidential candidates have entered the hectic post-Labor Day campaign season. But the top contenders were pretty busy already, hitting 47 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico even before the fall frenzy kicked off this month.
The Wall Street Journal asked each of the 10 candidates who qualified for the September Democratic debate to share how many campaign trips they had made to each state, including for public events and fundraising stops, from the time each of them got into the race through Labor Day.
Hitting the Campaign Trail
States with early elections have been popular destinations for candidates through Labor Day.
Campaign visits, by primary schedule
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg
Yang
Booker
O’Rourke
Castro
Klobuchar
Early states (4)
Super Tuesday(14)
Home states
In addition to traveling for 650 visits, candidates made 95 “visits” to their home states
March states (12)
April states (11)
Late states (11)
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns
Source: The Campaigns
Here are some of the top takeaways from 2020 Democrats’ travel schedules:
Candidates are already looking ahead to the general election
President Trump won the 2016 election by narrowly capturing Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point each. Some Democrats said former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost the latter two states because she didn’t spend enough time there.
The 2020 contenders are eager to avoid the same criticism. Candidates surveyed by the Journal have been to Michigan a total of 26 times, Wisconsin 10 times and Pennsylvania 13 times.
That is more trips to the Rust Belt than they have made to Nevada (45), the third state to hold its nominating contest.
The second Democratic presidential debate was held in Detroit, which brought all 10 candidates to Michigan.
Former Vice President Joe Biden —the last of the top 10 to get in the race, in April—selected Pennsylvania as his campaign headquarters over his home state of Delaware, and he has made three trips to the state.
It’s official: California is an early state
Delegate-rich California’s primary was moved forward this cycle to March 3, the critical voting day known as Super Tuesday, from June in 2016. California’s mail-in voting starts a month earlier, the same day Iowa voters go to the polls, and the state is home to generous liberal donors in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles.
All that means California’s importance to the 2020 primaries has increased exponentially. The top candidates have been to California 58 times. The state is third only to Iowa (108) and New Hampshire (77).
Primary vs. Battleground Focus
Rust Belt states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have racked up as many campaign visits as Nevada, a pivotal early state.
Campaign visits
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg
Yang
Booker
O’Rourke
Castro
Klobuchar
Nevada
Feb. 25
Michigan
More than half of the visits to rust belt states, 26, have been to Michigan
Rust
Belt
states
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns
Source: The Campaigns
Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan political analyst who heads the Cook Political Report, said he was skeptical that spending so much time in California would pay off. Since 1972, the Democratic nominee has come in first, second or third in Iowa and first or second in New Hampshire.
“As people in California start their early voting, what’s going to be dominating the news? Iowa and New Hampshire,” he said. “All roads lead back to Iowa and New Hampshire.”
Early-state priorities are clear for certain campaigns
No candidate on the September debate stage has made more visits to one state this year than Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar has made to Iowa. She has traveled there 16 times. (Entrepreneur Andrew Yang has also made 16 trips, but he launched his campaign in November 2017, more than a year before most candidates began to jump in the race.) Ms. Klobuchar, of neighboring Minnesota, is pitching herself as a Heartland native.
As for New Hampshire, the state after Iowa on the nominating calendar, Ms. Warren has made more trips there than any other candidate. She has been there 15 times this year (Mr. Yang has been 14 times over two years). Ms. Warren’s campaign is based across the state line in Boston, and her travel schedule follows Democratic conventional wisdom: Ms. Warren must put up a strong showing in her own backyard.
Candidate visits to early voting states
Iowa (Feb. 3)
New Hampshire (Feb. 11)
Despite being part of a busy Super Tuesday, California is getting attention like the earliest states on the calendar.
Nevada (Feb. 22)
South Carolina (Feb. 29)
California (March 3, Super Tuesday)
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns; only counts visits outside of candidates’ home states
Source: The Campaigns
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, by comparison, has made just six trips to New Hampshire.
The fundraising circuit makes Western states popular destinations
The candidates are known to frequent liberal enclaves like Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., and the Hamptons on Long Island in New York.
A handful of candidates are also hitting another fertile ground for fundraising: a smattering of Western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Washington and Colorado. Some candidates, such as Mr. Biden, have flown in, collected checks and left without making a single public appearance.
In early August, Mr. Biden addressed 90 people—who paid $2,800 each to attend—at the Sun Valley, Idaho, home of a former U.S. ambassador. In June, Mr. Biden was hosted at the Seattle home of public-relations executive Roger Nyhus. About 50 guests sipped wine and ate crab cakes as Mr. Nyhus, in introducing the former vice president, joked that his own home was nicknamed the “White House.”
Visits with only fundraising events
Biden
Harris
Harris went to New York to raise funds 11 times
Buttigieg
Yang
Both campaign visits to Wyoming consisted only of fundraising events
Booker
Klobuchar
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns; only counts visits outside of candidates’ home states
Source: The Campaigns
No fundraisers means more campaigning for Warren, Sanders
Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders aren’t participating in private, big-ticket fundraisers. Their campaigns say that frees up their schedules to reach more voters. They appear to have a point: Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders have hosted public events in more states than many of their rivals.
Through Labor Day, Ms. Warren held public events in 26 states and Puerto Rico, not including her home state of Massachusetts. That was more than any other top candidate. She has hosted more than 100 town halls, where supporters wait, sometimes for hours, to take a photo with her. Not including Vermont, Mr. Sanders has campaigned in 19 states and Washington, D.C.
Ms. Warren has attracted massive crowds at events held away from the early primary states. In late August, she pulled the largest crowds of her campaign: 12,000 attendees in St. Paul, Minn., followed days later by 15,000 people in Seattle.
“[Democratic presidential candidates] should go to the places they sneaked by last time,” said Terry Mitchell, 66, who attended Ms. Warren’s rally in Minnesota, which Mr. Trump lost by 1.5 percentage points.
Candidates stump in delegate-rich Deep South
The candidates, in an attempt to introduce themselves to African-Americans, are making swings through the Deep South, including for big conferences and other “cattle call” events, such as the Black Church PAC presidential candidate forum in Atlanta in August.
Campaign visits in the Deep South
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg
Yang
Booker
O’Rourke
Castro
Klobuchar
As an early primary state, South Carolina’s 56 visits are more about
gaining early wins than
connecting with
Southern voters.
Miss.
Ala.
Ga.
La.
Changing demographics in Georgia have made it a more popular campaign stop over the last two years.
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns.
Source: The Campaigns
Mrs. Clinton locked up the nomination in 2016 by sweeping the South; Barack Obama did the same in 2008.
2020 Democrats are trying to mimic that strategy. Ms. Warren, for example, took a tour of Brown Chapel AME Church in Selma, Ala., in March.
“You have a group of voters, a group of citizens, who are concerned about a particular set of issues, and they meet at a particular place at a particular time,” said Pastor Leah Daughtry of Brooklyn, N.Y., a founding member of the Black Church PAC. “[Presidential candidates] need to meet the voters where they are.”
Puerto Rico is on the map
Puerto Rico residents can vote in the Democratic primary, but not until June, when most states will have voted. Residents don’t get electoral votes in the general election.
Still, Ms. Warren, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Ms. Klobuchar have all visited the island at least once. Democrats have sought to contrast their efforts to get aid to the island following two brutal storms in 2017 to the president’s attempts to limit funds and his criticism of the island’s government.
Candidates see long-term strategy in red states
Presidential candidates generally put states into three categories: early primary states, competitive general-election states and states full of wealthy donors. But there are a handful of states that don’t fit any of those buckets where Democrats are showing up anyway.
Mr. Sanders held a rally in Kentucky in August. Ms. Warren had an opioid-focused event in a West Virginia fire station in May. Ms. Klobuchar met with voters in June at a North Dakota coffee shop and brewery, and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke met families affected by immigration raids in a grocery store in Mississippi.
Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to Mr. Sanders, acknowledged it could be an uphill battle for Democrats to win states like Kentucky, but he said the campaign stops will help the party grow.
Campaign visits by state political lean
Early
states
4 states
Early states tend to get attention regardless of their political leaning, as candidates try to secure early wins.
Super
Tuesday
14 states
March
states
12 states
April
states
11 states
It is rarer for Democrats to woo Republican states that are later in the calendar and less likely to play a role in the primary, as Sanders did in Kentucky.
Late
states
11 states
Note: Includes official events reported by campaigns; only counts visits outside of candidates’ home states; party lean of states is a combination of Senate representation and 2016 presidential vote.
Source: The Campaigns
“Bernie Sanders wants to telegraph that he is prepared for the mantle of leadership, in terms of being the head of the Democratic Party, that he is prepared to expand the reach of the party into every state,” Mr. Weaver said. “We are no longer going to concede a large number of states to the Republicans.”
“I just don’t think he has a chance against Donald Trump in the state of Kentucky. I don’t think Kentucky is ready to switch,” said Ryan Conard, a doctor who attended Mr. Sanders’s rally in Louisville. But Mr. Conard was hopeful that the state would flip over time: “Exposure is everything. The squeaky wheel gets the oil, right? So the more his message is heard…I think it’s going to change.”
There are just three states no top candidate has visited
Three states have received zero visits: Hawaii, Montana and Alaska. (Montana Gov. Steve Bullock ’s presidential campaign is based in Helena, but he didn’t make the September debate.)
Mr. Castro has pledged to visit all 50 states—a promise meant to both draw attention to his candidacy and differentiate himself. “He’s not afraid of a small crowd,” said campaign manager Maya Rupert.
Methodology
A visit was defined as a round-trip to the state for a candidate’s presidential campaign, regardless of the number of events during the visit. The Journal didn’t include trips to candidates’ home states; however, it did include visits to a state where a campaign placed its headquarters if it was a different location than the candidate’s home state and the candidate was there for events, not just administrative work.
Write to Joshua Jamerson at joshua.jamerson@wsj.com and Eliza Collins at eliza.collins@wsj.com.
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2019-09-10 11:00:00Z
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-campaign-travel-reveals-2020-priorities-11568113203
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